HOW BIGDATA TRENDS WORKS
How news becomes
a signal you can explore.
Bigdata Trends is the product. Neoclouds is the theme. Each theme contains narratives, organized into mechanisms with beneficial and adverse statements. We use this framework to find and assess company news, then combine the evidence into the Neoclouds Index. Here’s how it works and what the charts do not tell you.
Define the theme and its company basket
Start with an economic question, then find the businesses exposed to it.
We start with companies that operate a substantial GPU-cloud business for external customers. This includes specialist neoclouds and diversified companies with a meaningful operating business. Bigdata’s search and relationship APIs help discover candidates; we review the evidence of actual services and business scale. A small GPU offering or an announced expansion alone is insufficient. Broad hyperscalers remain outside this theme.
Find reporting that establishes business exposure.
Surface associated topics and recurring connections.
Discover connected companies, products and concepts.
Documented as “Connected Entities.”Screening for publicly traded securities
We filter candidate companies before including them in the basket. Alongside verified thematic exposure, we require public trading status and apply the price, size and liquidity thresholds below to exclude penny stocks, very small companies and insufficiently liquid securities.
Inside the method
Search and relationship discovery identify candidates; co-occurrence is not proof of economic exposure. We review source-backed business activity, resolve aliases to company IDs and apply public-company and liquidity checks.
These screens select the current basket for historical analysis; they do not establish membership at every past date. The approved 14-company basket is followed across all 1,096 days from October 27, 2023 through October 26, 2026. Diversified operators can qualify; broad hyperscalers are excluded.
Break the theme into testable statements
A taxonomy of economic mechanisms—not a collection of bullish keywords.
We divide the theme into four narratives: Customer Demand and Monetization, Capacity and Service Delivery, Capital and Unit Economics, and Market Access and Operating Permissions. Each contains five mechanisms with a beneficial and an adverse statement. For example, customer commitments can expand or shrink. Both directions belong in the research framework.
Customer capacity commitments expand
Customer capacity commitments shrink
We pair beneficial and adverse statements so our searches actively seek both bullish and bearish developments. The aim is balanced search coverage, not a bullish-only news feed. We do not force the retrieved evidence into a 50/50 split: the actual mix should reflect the reporting.
The complete Neoclouds theme
Inside the method
Customer demand, service delivery, capital and economics, and operating permissions organize the four narratives. Every narrative has five mechanism pairs: five beneficial statements and five adverse statements.
Statement direction is not company impact: a supply constraint may harm one business and benefit a competitor. Statements cover different projects and companies while remaining specific enough to test against an atomic event.
Retrieve news and extract triplets
Queries find candidate passages. Extraction identifies what actually happened to whom.
For each statement, six queries look for different ways the same mechanism could appear in reporting. We use the Bigdata Search API to retrieve candidate passages within the chosen company and date scope. Extraction then turns a passage into a triplet: the company, whether it benefits or is harmed, and the specific event causing that effect. The original document remains attached as evidence.
Inside the method
Balanced specifications use six retrieval queries per statement to cover different expressions of the mechanism. Shared passage identities prevent overlapping searches from becoming unrelated extraction inputs. Retrieval finds candidates; it does not establish statement membership.
The extractor requires a named company and a causal effect. Resolution links it to the basket. Pure macro commentary without an attributable company effect does not enter the impact dataset. A document can contain several distinct events.
Check whether the event is relevant
Concrete events are matched by subject and context, with the closest statement used when needed.
The classifier assesses a concrete company event using its source and the narrative’s subject. A contextual connection can support a match. If an event concerns that subject but no statement fits perfectly, it is assigned to the closest statement. Mechanism descriptions guide the label; they are not strict exclusion rules. Generic outlook without a concrete event remains background.
Example GPU Cloud → Benefits from → A customer signs a multiyear GPU-capacity commitment
The illustrative event is assessed against all statements in the narrative. These examples show how matching works.
- ✓ RelevantCustomer capacity commitments expandThe customer commits to buying GPU-cloud capacity.
- ✓ RelevantContext-supported membershipA concrete GPU-cloud event can match through its source context, even when it uses different wording.
- × Not relevantBackground-only commentaryA separate claim that demand might grow, with no concrete company event, remains background.
Green and red indicate relevance to the statement, not positive or negative company impact.
Inside the method
Every claim is assessed against all statements in its narrative, regardless of which query found it. An event can receive several memberships. When it concerns the narrative’s subject but no statement is a perfect fit, the closest statement is retained. Mechanism labels do not veto a contextual match. Classification is automated and can be wrong; the source remains available for review.
Separate fresh developments from background
Publication time alone cannot distinguish a new development from repeated background.
An article published today may describe a deal announced months ago. The freshness check asks whether the event itself adds new information at publication time. An announcement or a material change can contribute to the signal. A passage simply recalling an old agreement receives zero impact weight. This prevents background coverage from being treated as a fresh catalyst just because it appears in a new article.
Funding announced
Eligible for impactFunding approved
Eligible for impactOld funding recalled
Zero impact weightInside the method
Freshness compares the encoded event with the source’s publication timestamp; there is no single age cutoff. Changed approvals, milestones or commercial terms may be new. Historical background receives zero weight and is excluded from the eligible registry. Uncertain freshness retains weight 1 in the service—it does not mean verified new.
Freshness asks whether information is new. Hashing asks whether the exact triplet is already known.
Score the company effect
A signed score combines company effect, impact strength, attention and source authority.
Once evidence passes these checks, we assign a signed weight. Benefits are positive and harms are negative; the size also reflects the assessed impact, the attention the event receives and source authority. Freshness determines whether historical background contributes at all. The equation below combines those factors. Its result is an evidence score, not a forecast of a stock’s return.
Benefits +1 · harms −1
Economic significance
Coverage weight
Actor and publisher role
New information vs background
What the weights mean
Economic impact: the model assesses the event’s importance to the named company, not how dramatic the headline sounds. Limited or incremental effects receive 0.75; meaningful but bounded effects receive 1; events that plausibly change company-level economics receive 1.25. These are relative weights, not percentage returns.
Authority: an explicit action, decision or official statement by a government agency, regulator, central bank or policymaker receives 1.5. Otherwise, reporting from a major wire, financial publication or influential industry institution receives 1.2. Other or unknown sources receive 1. The official actor must be part of the atomic event; merely mentioning government does not qualify.
Freshness: new developments and material updates retain their weight (1); historical background contributes nothing (0). The service also retains uncertain cases at 1, so this is a classification rule, not a guarantee that every retained event is new.
More coverage matters.
Not one-for-one.
Logarithmic frequency tempers repeated reporting. Relative density is measured within the statement’s corpus. Publisher breadth is also considered in the narrative-attention calculation: reporting spread across different publishers receives a bounded diversity boost, rather than treating concentrated coverage from one publisher as equally broad. This is separate from the event-attention formula shown here.
The scoring calculation
The reusable service multiplies these five factors. Historical background has F = 0; new, materially updated and uncertain records have F = 1. Direction comes from the company-effect predicate, not the statement’s label.
Attention retains one triplet per statement, company and document using source order. Local clusters normalize text to measure frequency. Density uses all processed statement documents, including those without retained triplets; percentile ties receive an average rank. This normalization is not the final event hash.
These are evidence weights, not expected returns or probabilities. The website uses frozen, precomputed historical scores and series; current service settings are not applied retroactively. Comparisons require pinned scoring provenance.
Deduplicate repeated triplets
A stable hash connects repeated evidence without inventing another impact contribution.
The same development can appear in several publications and on different days. We create a stable identity from the canonical company, predicate and exact atomic-event text. When all three match, we keep one triplet and attach the additional sources to it. The earliest eligible publication day determines its impact date, so later copies do not create another contribution. The evidence table can also group related descriptions for easier reading. Expand a group to see the original triplets, dates, assessments and sources; their scores and chart contributions stay unchanged.
Publisher, document, date and narrative membership.
Exact wording, case, punctuation and whitespace.
Inside the method
Impact is attributed to the earliest eligible publication day. First-day retained observation scores are averaged; later matching evidence does not revise that contribution. Evidence keeps its actual dates and source links.
The theme index counts shared exact events once across narratives while preserving memberships. Different wording can describe the same real-world deal and retain separate scores. Visual event groups bring those descriptions together in the table without changing the scoring dataset. A group can contain both benefit and harm assessments; neither is discarded. Repeated wording and reviewed wording variants share one entry, preserving all original assessments and sources. The displayed score averages the unique triplets, first averaging each triplet’s original assessments. This display average does not change the index.
Build the dataset and the chart
Every chart starts with structured events and their contributing evidence.
The output is a traceable dataset, not just a line on a chart. Each event retains its company, classification, score and contributing sources. To build the company-impact series, we combine eligible event scores for each day, temper the effect of event volume, cap extremes and average over a rolling 60-day window. This lets you move from a change in the chart back to the developments behind it.
- Identity
- Event hash · canonical company ID
- Development
- Company → benefit / harm → atomic event
- Classification
- Narrative + statement memberships
- Assessment
- Relevance · freshness · score provenance
- Evidence
- First eligible day · dated sources · headlines · links
Scale event volume; cap extremes.
A quiet day does not erase yesterday’s evidence.
Inspect the developments behind a move.
Inside the method
The daily formula applies when there are eligible events; no-event days contribute zero. Robust calibration caps extremes. Company evidence is averaged across 60 calendar days, then combined across the basket. Early values remain blank during warm-up. A decline may reflect old positive events leaving the window rather than a new negative event.
Impact measures weighted company developments. Attention measures reporting activity relative to its baseline. Company price overlays show Bigdata daily closes in each listing’s currency, on a separate axis from the news signal. The basket price index starts at 100 and compounds equally weighted local-currency returns across available histories. A new listing joins at its first close and contributes returns thereafter. Calendar days without trading carry the prior close; they never borrow a future quote. Source previews are capped at 256 characters, with links to the original reporting.
Extend the history with daily updates
Nightly updates are not enabled for this publication. The daily workflow is ready for scheduling.
This publication covers October 27, 2023 through October 26, 2026. Nightly updates have not been enabled. When scheduled, the daily service can retrieve and assess one completed publication day at a time using the same approved basket and taxonomy. It checks new triplets against the accumulated dataset before publishing. The website’s as-of date shows the latest included day.
Inside the method
When enabled, a scheduler advances one completed publication day at a time without rediscovering the basket. Interrupted work resumes from saved progress. Updates include weekends and use verified daily article counts. A day is published only after all four narratives are complete.
Daily and historical attention have different retrieval-window corpora; weights are not guaranteed to be partition-invariant. The website is a published snapshot with an as-of date, not a promise of a continuously running feed.
INSIDE THE NEOCLOUDS THEME
One market. Competing stories.
Select a mechanism to compare its beneficial and adverse statements.
